The election post-mortem
by Tom McLaughlin

Ah, my favorite column of the year ...

The day's biggest winner: Duh. Stanley Noblin not only won, he blew incumbent Sheriff Jeff Oakes out of the water. Noblin's greatest asset, aside from an accessible and friendly nature, was the open support he received from fellow police officers, be they State Troopers, former deputies or the rest. The show of solidarity destroyed the insinuation coming out of the Oakes camp that a failure to return the sheriff to office would be a victory for drug dealers, rapists, murderers and assorted other evil doers, all of whom would be out dancing in the streets in the event of a Noblin win. Then argument was always patently ridiculous but Noblin's ads with him surrounded by a bevy of cops completely destroyed it. With such scare tactics falling by the wayside, what exactly was the basis for Oakes' re-election?
Least surprising result: Joe Gasperini's victory. I guess I was a little surprised by the margin, but not really. Youth can be an advantage in politics because it's the young guys who have the time and energy to go out and knock on doors and do all the things that can make a real difference in a tight race. But youth — and especially the follies that accompany it — also can work against a candidate. I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Bailey run again for office someday. But as Tuesday's results make clear, his image needs some rehabilitation.
Biggest turning point: At the Chamber of Commerce candidates forum, Noblin revealed that Oakes had channeled nearly the entire overtime budget last year to only one officer, Chief Deputy Richard Pulliam. The revelation illustrated the closed loop that the sheriff's office seemingly had become, a two-man operation of chief and chief subordinate alone. It didn't help matters when Oakes featured Pulliam prominently in his own ads, essentially reinforcing the point that Noblin was making and trying to pass it off as a good thing. Voters clearly disagreed.
Biggest misstep of the campaign: Hands down, the letter to the editor by Pulliam's mother pleading for people to support Oakes because her son was in such poor health. I don't mean to make light of anyone else's problems, and certainly wish Richard Pulliam nothing but the best in terms of his health. But the letter undermined one of the main themes of the Oakes campaign: that Pulliam exerted superhuman effort to keep the streets of Halifax County safe. The point was pretty hard to square with the image of Pulliam at his sickbed. In political terms at least, the letter was a serious mistake.
Fondest wish and expectation, post-election: that Stanley Noblin sticks to his vow to treat all members of the department fairly, Pulliam included. That, and restore accountability and openness to the Sheriff's Office. Runner-up: That Tuesday's losers land on their feet. At the end of the day it's still one community we live in, albeit one that's divided on occasion, where no one should want the worst for anyone.
Early sign that the Sheriff's election was going to be a blowout: Joe Bailey was spotted at the polls Tuesday wearing a Noblin sticker.
Things that make you go hmmm: Clarksville mayor Bob Wilkerson, running for State Senate with no money and a late start, kept the margin in the 15th District race respectable, losing to incumbent Republican Frank Ruff 59%-41%. Wilkerson actually carried five or 22 precincts in Halifax County and South Boston and garnered a higher vote percentage in his race than Oakes, an incumbent Republican sheriff, got in his.
Things that make you go hmmm, #2: Of all the candidates running unopposed countywide, Treasurer Linda Foster got the most votes, 7,138. Getting the least? Delegates Clarke Hogan, with 6,117.
Double hmmm: In Prince Edward County, the treasurer who ran unopposed garnered 3,987 votes to lead the ticket. Who among the uncontested candidates was again at the bottom of the vote pile? Our delegate of course, with 2,324 votes. Make that a triple hmmm.
Man on the hot seat: Paul Stapleton. Stapleton's so smart and deft that I have no doubt he'll use his considerable powers of persuasion to reach out to the newcomers on the School Board. But the outcome of the Gasperini-Bailey race, and even more so Stuart Comer's upset of Sandra Rister in District 7, suggests to me that the voters wanted to clip Stapleton's wings a bit. I'd be surprised if either Gasperini or Comer brought a wrecking ball with them into office. But nor are they — or any of the other newcomers on the School Board — likely to be anyone's rubber stamp. In three years Halifax County loses $3 million - $4 million annually in state education funding as the reversion agreement between the county and state lapses. Best of luck to the School Board victors dealing with that ticking time bomb.
On the hot seat, part two: Virginia Republicans. Wow, what a clueless bunch. In Newport News the fire-eaters in the party drove longtime incumbent Marty Williams out of office in the a June primary, only to see their wingnut nominee, Tricia Stall, who was on the record saying that public education should be abolished, go on to lose the seat to a Democrat, John Miller. Heckuva job, my flappy eared elephant friends. Of course, the moderate-conservative split in the district proved to be fateful for Virginia Republicans as a whole, since they lost their majority in the State Senate by exactly one seat. Just how long do you think it'll take for the circular firing squad to form?
Candidate of diminishing returns: Frank Ruff. "Do-nothing" was a fairly apt description for our senator even when his party held the majority in the Senate. Now that Republicans are on the bottom looking up, what happens to Ruff's vaunted (not!) ability to bring home the bacon? Old Frank Ruff: I am quietly tending to Southside's business in Richmond. New Frank Ruff: It's not my fault I can't get anything done!
Biggest long-term impact of Tuesday's vote: I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the outcome — especially the State Senate falling under Democratic control — more likely than not spells the end of the 15th Senate District as we know it. One reason this year's vote was so important is because redistricting comes up in 2011, and Democrats needed control of the Senate to ensure they weren't shut out of the deliberations. Mission accomplished.
Meantime, Ruff presides over a district that's as large as Rhode Island, with a number of counties — including Halifax — that are losing population. The 15th would barely be tenable even if the Senate powers-that-be wanted to protect the party faithful. Ruff no longer has the benefit of such protection. A lot can happen between now and the next reapportionment, but you can bet that Ruff's seat will be one of the first to go if the Democratic majority ends up calling the shots — reiterating, of course, that geography and population trends argue for consolidation of rural districts in any event. Will Frank Ruff and Robert Hurt, the new senator from Pittsylvania, be thrown into the same district? Or will Mecklenburg get carved off and thrown back into Louise Lucas's Senate district stretching all the way to Portsmouth? It's easy to envision either scenario coming to pass. But the upshot is the same: in the jungle, only the strong survive. No one should make the mistake of viewing Frank Ruff — or indeed this Senate district — as a pillar of strength.

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Past Column's

The Decking of Old  367

The New Hot Spot

Picture Perfect